Miller Industries, Inc. logo MLR - Miller Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 7.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.2% below fair value
Current Price $46.56
Bear Case $41.66 10.5% downside ($41.66 - $46.56) / $46.56 = -10.5% $2.98 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $47.62 2.3% upside ($47.62 - $46.56) / $46.56 = 2.3% $2.98 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $53.57 15.1% upside ($53.57 - $46.56) / $46.56 = 15.1% $2.98 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.98, the base-case value is $47.62 per share. DDM cross-check: $15.69.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 50%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $15.69 (below our primary estimate by 67%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples