Miller Industries, Inc. logo MLR - Miller Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $54.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $64.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $54.00
DOWNSIDE: 4.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.1% above fair value
Current Price $56.73
Bear Case $41.66 26.6% downside ($41.66 - $56.73) / $56.73 = -26.6% $2.98 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $47.62 16.1% downside ($47.62 - $56.73) / $56.73 = -16.1% $2.98 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $53.57 5.6% downside ($53.57 - $56.73) / $56.73 = -5.6% $2.98 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.98, the base-case value is $47.62 per share. DDM cross-check: $16.69.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 50%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $16.69 (below our primary estimate by 65%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples