Mesa Laboratories, Inc. logo MLAB - Mesa Laboratories, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $94.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $94.00
MEDIAN: $94.00
CONSENSUS: $94.00
DOWNSIDE: 13.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.3% above fair value
Current Price $108.64
Bear Case $59.73 45.0% downside ($59.73 - $108.64) / $108.64 = -45.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $82.75 23.8% downside ($82.75 - $108.64) / $108.64 = -23.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $104.12 4.2% downside ($104.12 - $108.64) / $108.64 = -4.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 23.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.75 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions