MKTX - MarketAxess Holdings Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$148.83
DETAILS
HIGH:
$167.00
LOW:
$128.00
MEDIAN:
$150.50
CONSENSUS:
$148.83
DOWNSIDE:
9.60%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
32.8%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (32.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.71x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 32.8% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $21.35 tangible book, implying $177.89 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.28.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$148.83
Analyst Range
$128.00 – $167.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $50.28 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly