MKTX - MarketAxess Holdings Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$192.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$215.00
LOW:
$170.00
MEDIAN:
$195.00
CONSENSUS:
$192.00
UPSIDE:
40.01%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
32.8%
9.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (32.8%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
6.49x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $192.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $181.42 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $46.14 (74% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly