MKS Inc. logo MKSI - MKS Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $408.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $600.00
LOW: $265.00
MEDIAN: $374.00
CONSENSUS: $408.14
UPSIDE: 65.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 76.9% above fair value
Current Price $246.44
Bear Case $85.19 65.4% downside ($85.19 - $246.44) / $246.44 = -65.4% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $139.34 43.5% downside ($139.34 - $246.44) / $246.44 = -43.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $193.66 21.4% downside ($193.66 - $246.44) / $246.44 = -21.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 31.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.9% vs our 11.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $139.34 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $408.14
Analyst Range $265.00 – $600.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 66%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $408.14 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions