MKS Inc. logo MKSI - MKS Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $407.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $600.00
LOW: $265.00
MEDIAN: $397.50
CONSENSUS: $407.75
UPSIDE: 22.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 107.4% above fair value
Current Price $332.00
Bear Case $83.01 75.0% downside ($83.01 - $332.00) / $332.00 = -75.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $160.06 51.8% downside ($160.06 - $332.00) / $332.00 = -51.8% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $237.37 28.5% downside ($237.37 - $332.00) / $332.00 = -28.5% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 58.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 25.3% vs our 11.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $407.75 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $160.06 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $407.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions