MKS Inc. logo MKSI - MKS Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $296.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $380.00
LOW: $175.00
MEDIAN: $310.00
CONSENSUS: $296.75
DOWNSIDE: 11.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 152.5% above fair value
Current Price $334.11
Bear Case $68.61 79.5% downside ($68.61 - $334.11) / $334.11 = -79.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $132.31 60.4% downside ($132.31 - $334.11) / $334.11 = -60.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $196.22 41.3% downside ($196.22 - $334.11) / $334.11 = -41.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 58.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $296.75 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.31 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $296.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions