Mirion Technologies, Inc. logo MIR - Mirion Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $24.50
UPSIDE: 68.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 24.2% above fair value
Current Price $14.57
Bear Case $6.82 53.2% downside ($6.82 - $14.57) / $14.57 = -53.2% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.73 19.5% downside ($11.73 - $14.57) / $14.57 = -19.5% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $16.96 16.4% upside ($16.96 - $14.57) / $14.57 = 16.4% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 32.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.5% vs our 13.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.73 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $24.50
Analyst Range $23.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions