Mirion Technologies, Inc. logo MIR - Mirion Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $28.50
CONSENSUS: $28.25
UPSIDE: 53.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 60.6% above fair value
Current Price $18.35
Bear Case $5.92 67.7% downside ($5.92 - $18.35) / $18.35 = -67.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.43 37.7% downside ($11.43 - $18.35) / $18.35 = -37.7% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $17.30 5.7% downside ($17.30 - $18.35) / $18.35 = -5.7% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 55.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.25 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $11.43 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.25 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions