McGraw Hill, Inc. logo MH - McGraw Hill, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $16.14
UPSIDE: 17.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 323.8% above fair value
Current Price $13.69
Bear Case $2.66 80.6% downside ($2.66 - $13.69) / $13.69 = -80.6% $0.19 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $3.23 76.4% downside ($3.23 - $13.69) / $13.69 = -76.4% $0.19 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $3.80 72.2% downside ($3.80 - $13.69) / $13.69 = -72.2% $0.19 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
0.19$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 72.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.19, the base-case value is $3.23 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $16.14
Analyst Range $14.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 80%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.14 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples