McGrath RentCorp logo MGRC - McGrath RentCorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $140.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $140.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $140.00
CONSENSUS: $140.00
UPSIDE: 27.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.8% below fair value
Current Price $110.08
Bear Case $110.70 0.6% upside ($110.70 - $110.08) / $110.08 = 0.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $158.99 44.4% upside ($158.99 - $110.08) / $110.08 = 44.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $207.06 88.1% upside ($207.06 - $110.08) / $110.08 = 88.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $158.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions