AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MGPI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MGPI is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MGPI?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MGPI's most recent reported fundamentals.

MGPI - MGP Ingredients, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $29.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 32.8% above fair value

Current Price $18.05

Bear Case $3.66 79.7% downside ($3.66 - $18.05) / $18.05 = -79.7% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple

Fair Value $13.59 24.7% downside ($13.59 - $18.05) / $18.05 = -24.7% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple

Bull Case $23.51 30.3% upside ($23.51 - $18.05) / $18.05 = 30.3% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

FCF Multiple

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 8.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.59 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.

⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.

ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.

⚠ Debt per share ($11.61) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $29.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case