Magnite, Inc. logo MGNI - Magnite, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $19.25
UPSIDE: 0.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.5% below fair value
Current Price $19.12
Bear Case $12.61 34.1% downside ($12.61 - $19.12) / $19.12 = -34.1% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $19.82 3.6% upside ($19.82 - $19.12) / $19.12 = 3.6% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $27.83 45.5% upside ($27.83 - $19.12) / $19.12 = 45.5% 20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 26.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.4% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.25 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.82 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 53% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions