AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies MFA Financial, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MFA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is MFA Financial, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MFA comes from a P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MFA?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MFA was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple, built from MFA's most recent reported fundamentals.

MFA - MFA Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $10.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 75.7% below fair value

Current Price $8.83

Bear Case $29.98 239.5% upside ($29.98 - $8.83) / $8.83 = 239.5% $1.75 FFO × 17x

Fair Value $36.41 312.3% upside ($36.41 - $8.83) / $8.83 = 312.3% $1.75 FFO × 21x

Bull Case $42.83 385.0% upside ($42.83 - $8.83) / $8.83 = 385.0% $1.75 FFO × 24x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

20.8x

FFO per Share

1.75$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.75) × default P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 5.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.75 FFO/share with a 21x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $36.41 per share. Dividend yield: 16.3%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $10.75

Analyst Range $10.50 – $11.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 239%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 16.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $10.75 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 239% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify