Methode Electronics, Inc. logo MEI - Methode Electronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $27.50
CONSENSUS: $25.25
UPSIDE: 38.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.3% above fair value
Current Price $18.21
Bear Case $12.53 31.2% downside ($12.53 - $18.21) / $18.21 = -31.2% $1.04 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $15.66 14.0% downside ($15.66 - $18.21) / $18.21 = -14.0% $1.04 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $18.79 3.2% upside ($18.79 - $18.21) / $18.21 = 3.2% $1.04 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.04, the base-case value is $15.66 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (6 analysts) $25.25
Analyst Range $16.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $25.25 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples