Methode Electronics, Inc. logo MEI - Methode Electronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.50
LOW: $8.50
MEDIAN: $8.50
CONSENSUS: $8.50
DOWNSIDE: 24.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 67.0% below fair value
Current Price $11.24
Bear Case $27.28 142.7% upside ($27.28 - $11.24) / $11.24 = 142.7% $2.70 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $34.10 203.4% upside ($34.10 - $11.24) / $11.24 = 203.4% $2.70 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $40.92 264.1% upside ($40.92 - $11.24) / $11.24 = 264.1% $2.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 4.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.10 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $8.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 376% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples