Methode Electronics, Inc. logo MEI - Methode Electronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $20.50
CONSENSUS: $20.50
UPSIDE: 30.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 56.8% below fair value
Current Price $15.76
Bear Case $29.20 85.3% upside ($29.20 - $15.76) / $15.76 = 85.3% $2.70 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $36.50 131.6% upside ($36.50 - $15.76) / $15.76 = 131.6% $2.70 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $43.80 177.9% upside ($43.80 - $15.76) / $15.76 = 177.9% $2.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.50 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $20.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples