Medpace Holdings, Inc. logo MEDP - Medpace Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $598.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $692.00
LOW: $515.00
MEDIAN: $600.00
CONSENSUS: $598.89
DOWNSIDE: 0.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.2% below fair value
Current Price $602.43
Bear Case $441.22 26.8% downside ($441.22 - $602.43) / $602.43 = -26.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $663.47 10.1% upside ($663.47 - $602.43) / $602.43 = 10.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $904.10 50.1% upside ($904.10 - $602.43) / $602.43 = 50.1% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 25.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.1% vs our 13.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $598.89 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $663.47 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions