Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. logo MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 18
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $26.60
UPSIDE: 1.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.9% below fair value
Current Price $26.23
Bear Case $23.28 11.2% downside ($23.28 - $26.23) / $26.23 = -11.2% $1.94 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $29.10 10.9% upside ($29.10 - $26.23) / $26.23 = 10.9% $1.94 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $34.92 33.1% upside ($34.92 - $26.23) / $26.23 = 33.1% $1.94 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.94, the base-case value is $29.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $26.60
Analyst Range $24.00 – $28.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 9%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples