Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. logo MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $24.60
DOWNSIDE: 5.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.9% below fair value
Current Price $26.13
Bear Case $28.21 8.0% upside ($28.21 - $26.13) / $26.13 = 8.0% $2.66 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $35.27 35.0% upside ($35.27 - $26.13) / $26.13 = 35.0% $2.66 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $42.32 62.0% upside ($42.32 - $26.13) / $26.13 = 62.0% $2.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.60 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.27 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 37%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.60 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples