Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. logo MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $104.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $97.00
MEDIAN: $104.50
CONSENSUS: $104.50
DOWNSIDE: 10.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 33.4% above fair value
Current Price $116.81
Bear Case $86.95 25.6% downside ($86.95 - $116.81) / $116.81 = -25.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $87.53 25.1% downside ($87.53 - $116.81) / $116.81 = -25.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $93.13 20.3% downside ($93.13 - $116.81) / $116.81 = -20.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 29%
Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $104.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $87.53 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions