AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MCRI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MCRI is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MCRI?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MCRI's most recent reported fundamentals.

MCRI - Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $122.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 32.2% above fair value

Current Price $122.79

Bear Case $88.92 27.6% downside ($88.92 - $122.79) / $122.79 = -27.6% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $92.86 24.4% downside ($92.86 - $122.79) / $122.79 = -24.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $99.95 18.6% downside ($99.95 - $122.79) / $122.79 = -18.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

3.7%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 29%

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Market is pricing in (growth) 8.9% vs our 3.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.86 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $122.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions