McKesson Corporation logo MCK - McKesson Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 24
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $999.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,085.00
LOW: $875.00
MEDIAN: $1,010.00
CONSENSUS: $999.33
UPSIDE: 18.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.1% above fair value
Current Price $841.39
Bear Case $640.18 23.9% downside ($640.18 - $841.39) / $841.39 = -23.9% $41.24 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $800.22 4.9% downside ($800.22 - $841.39) / $841.39 = -4.9% $41.24 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $960.27 14.1% upside ($960.27 - $841.39) / $841.39 = 14.1% $41.24 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.3x
41.24$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $999.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $800.22 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $999.33 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples