MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. logo MCFT - MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $25.00
CONSENSUS: $25.33
UPSIDE: 8.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 6.6% above fair value
Current Price $23.44
Bear Case $17.38 25.9% downside ($17.38 - $23.44) / $23.44 = -25.9% $2.96 × 4x + net cash
Fair Value $21.99 6.2% downside ($21.99 - $23.44) / $23.44 = -6.2% $2.96 × 6x + net cash
Bull Case $26.61 13.5% upside ($26.61 - $23.44) / $23.44 = 13.5% $2.96 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

5.5x
2.96$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.96)

Implied Market Multiple 7.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.33 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.99 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 3.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing