MetroCity Bankshares, Inc. logo MCBS - MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.8% below fair value
Current Price $32.62
Bear Case $29.99 8.1% downside ($29.99 - $32.62) / $32.62 = -8.1% ROTCE 10.8% → 1.60x TBV
Fair Value $42.84 31.3% upside ($42.84 - $32.62) / $32.62 = 31.3% ROTCE 14.4% → 2.44x TBV
Bull Case $55.69 70.7% upside ($55.69 - $32.62) / $32.62 = 70.7% ROTCE 16.6% → 2.95x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.4%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.97x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.4% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.44x on $16.60 tangible book, implying $42.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly