MetroCity Bankshares, Inc. logo MCBS - MetroCity Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.5% below fair value
Current Price $37.07
Bear Case $29.99 19.1% downside ($29.99 - $37.07) / $37.07 = -19.1% ROTCE 10.8% → 1.64x TBV
Fair Value $42.84 15.6% upside ($42.84 - $37.07) / $37.07 = 15.6% ROTCE 14.4% → 2.51x TBV
Bull Case $55.69 50.2% upside ($55.69 - $37.07) / $37.07 = 50.2% ROTCE 16.6% → 3.03x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.4%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.23x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.4% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.51x on $16.60 tangible book, implying $42.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly