AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Moelis & Company's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Moelis & Company's fair value?

Fair value for MC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MC's most recent reported fundamentals.

MC - Moelis & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $75.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 16.6% below fair value

Current Price $63.61

Bear Case $53.39 16.1% downside ($53.39 - $63.61) / $63.61 = -16.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.60x TBV

Fair Value $76.27 19.9% upside ($76.27 - $63.61) / $63.61 = 19.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.71x TBV

Bull Case $99.15 55.9% upside ($99.15 - $63.61) / $63.61 = 55.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

41.1%

Cost of Equity

14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (41.1%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 8.33x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.75 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.27 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly