Moelis & Company logo MC - Moelis & Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 6
HOLD 13
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $78.00
CONSENSUS: $73.40
UPSIDE: 11.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 13.1% below fair value
Current Price $65.76
Bear Case $52.98 19.4% downside ($52.98 - $65.76) / $65.76 = -19.4% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.60x TBV
Fair Value $75.68 15.1% upside ($75.68 - $65.76) / $65.76 = 15.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.71x TBV
Bull Case $98.38 49.6% upside ($98.38 - $65.76) / $65.76 = 49.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

41.1%
14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (41.1%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 8.62x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.40 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly