Middlefield Banc Corp. logo MBCN - Middlefield Banc Corp.

Inactive Ticker MBCN is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $30.00
DOWNSIDE: 10.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.4% below fair value
Current Price $33.67
Bear Case $35.81 6.4% upside ($35.81 - $33.67) / $33.67 = 6.4% ROTCE 7.7% → 1.54x TBV
Fair Value $60.58 79.9% upside ($60.58 - $33.67) / $33.67 = 79.9% ROTCE 10.3% → 2.61x TBV
Bull Case $75.44 124.1% upside ($75.44 - $33.67) / $33.67 = 124.1% ROTCE 11.8% → 3.25x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.3%
6.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.45x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 10.3% vs. 6.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.61x on $23.22 tangible book, implying $60.58 per share. DDM cross-check: $32.29.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $32.29 (47% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly