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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.1% below fair value
Current Price $26.76
Bear Case $24.36 9.0% downside ($24.36 - $26.76) / $26.76 = -9.0% $2.03 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $30.45 13.8% upside ($30.45 - $26.76) / $26.76 = 13.8% $2.03 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $36.54 36.5% upside ($36.54 - $26.76) / $26.76 = 36.5% $2.03 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.03, the base-case value is $30.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.97.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $20.97 (below our primary estimate by 31%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples