Masimo Corporation logo MASI - Masimo Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $187.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $180.00
MEDIAN: $185.00
CONSENSUS: $187.50
UPSIDE: 4.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 123.1% above fair value
Current Price $178.81
Bear Case $65.10 63.6% downside ($65.10 - $178.81) / $178.81 = -63.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $80.14 55.2% downside ($80.14 - $178.81) / $178.81 = -55.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $93.41 47.8% downside ($93.41 - $178.81) / $178.81 = -47.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 57.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $187.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $80.14 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $187.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions