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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 21
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $82.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $97.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $79.00
CONSENSUS: $82.60
UPSIDE: 22.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.3% below fair value
Current Price $67.26
Bear Case $60.27 10.4% downside ($60.27 - $67.26) / $67.26 = -10.4% $3.94 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $68.87 2.4% upside ($68.87 - $67.26) / $67.26 = 2.4% $3.94 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $77.48 15.2% upside ($77.48 - $67.26) / $67.26 = 15.2% $3.94 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.94$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.60 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.87 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $33.75 (below our primary estimate by 46%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples