AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MAA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MAA is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MAA?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MAA's most recent reported fundamentals.

MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $142.57 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 43.7% below fair value

Current Price $133.21

Bear Case $200.11 50.2% upside ($200.11 - $133.21) / $133.21 = 50.2% $9.19 FFO × 19x

Fair Value $236.56 77.6% upside ($236.56 - $133.21) / $133.21 = 77.6% $9.19 FFO × 22x

Bull Case $273.01 104.9% upside ($273.01 - $133.21) / $133.21 = 104.9% $9.19 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

22.4x

FFO per Share

9.19$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.19) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $142.57 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $236.56 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $443.38 (60% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $142.57 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify