La-Z-Boy Incorporated logo LZB - La-Z-Boy Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.5% below fair value
Current Price $39.93
Bear Case $36.60 8.3% downside ($36.60 - $39.93) / $39.93 = -8.3% $2.61 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $41.83 4.8% upside ($41.83 - $39.93) / $39.93 = 4.8% $2.61 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $47.06 17.8% upside ($47.06 - $39.93) / $39.93 = 17.8% $2.61 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.61, the base-case value is $41.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $2608.53.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $2608.53 (above our primary estimate by 6137%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples