Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. logo LYV - Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 39
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $200.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $222.00
LOW: $186.00
MEDIAN: $200.00
CONSENSUS: $200.89
UPSIDE: 12.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.0% above fair value
Current Price $177.83
Bear Case $83.40 53.1% downside ($83.40 - $177.83) / $177.83 = -53.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $172.67 2.9% downside ($172.67 - $177.83) / $177.83 = -2.9% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $284.77 60.1% upside ($284.77 - $177.83) / $177.83 = 60.1% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 50.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 21.2% vs our 20.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $200.89 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $172.67 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 31% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions