LSI Industries Inc. logo LYTS - LSI Industries Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $28.50
CONSENSUS: $28.50
UPSIDE: 19.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.2% below fair value
Current Price $23.79
Bear Case $16.86 29.1% downside ($16.86 - $23.79) / $23.79 = -29.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $26.20 10.1% upside ($26.20 - $23.79) / $23.79 = 10.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $36.21 52.2% upside ($36.21 - $23.79) / $23.79 = 52.2% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 26.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.5% vs our 13.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.20 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions