LSI Industries Inc. logo LYTS - LSI Industries Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $27.00
UPSIDE: 16.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.2% below fair value
Current Price $23.26
Bear Case $16.67 28.3% downside ($16.67 - $23.26) / $23.26 = -28.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $25.90 11.4% upside ($25.90 - $23.26) / $23.26 = 11.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $35.80 53.9% upside ($35.80 - $23.26) / $23.26 = 53.9% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 25.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.90 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions