AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies LSB Industries, Inc. as a Platform & Compounding FCF business and values it using Two-stage FCF DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag LXU as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is LSB Industries, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for LXU comes from a Two-stage FCF DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Platform & Compounding FCF classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value LXU?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. LXU was classified as Platform & Compounding FCF and is valued using Two-stage FCF DCF, built from LXU's most recent reported fundamentals.

LXU - LSB Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $14.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 64.9% below fair value

Current Price $10.15

Bear Case $18.90 86.2% upside ($18.90 - $10.15) / $10.15 = 86.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $28.92 185.0% upside ($28.92 - $10.15) / $10.15 = 185.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $39.24 286.6% upside ($39.24 - $10.15) / $10.15 = 286.6% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

11.9%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%

Implied Market Multiple 11.0x

Market is pricing in (growth) 0.8% vs our 11.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.92 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $14.50

Analyst Range $13.00 – $16.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Warnings

ℹ This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

⚠ This stock is 41% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions