LXP Industrial Trust logo LXP - LXP Industrial Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $51.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $51.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $51.00
CONSENSUS: $51.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 46.7% below fair value
Current Price $52.98
Bear Case $81.37 53.6% upside ($81.37 - $52.98) / $52.98 = 53.6% $5.25 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $99.45 87.7% upside ($99.45 - $52.98) / $52.98 = 87.7% $5.25 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $117.53 121.8% upside ($117.53 - $52.98) / $52.98 = 121.8% $5.25 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
5.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.25) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $99.45 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 127% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify