LXP Industrial Trust logo LXP - LXP Industrial Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.20
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $58.73
DOWNSIDE: 3.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.8% below fair value
Current Price $61.00
Bear Case $95.63 56.8% upside ($95.63 - $61.00) / $61.00 = 56.8% $5.31 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $116.88 91.6% upside ($116.88 - $61.00) / $61.00 = 91.6% $5.31 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $138.14 126.5% upside ($138.14 - $61.00) / $61.00 = 126.5% $5.31 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
5.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.31) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.5x

Plain-Language Summary

At $5.31 FFO/share with a 22x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $116.88 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $58.73
Analyst Range $54.00 – $61.20
Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $58.73 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify