LXP Industrial Trust logo LXP - LXP Industrial Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 8
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.73 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.20
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $58.73
DOWNSIDE: 3.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.2% below fair value
Current Price $61.02
Bear Case $94.58 55.0% upside ($94.58 - $61.02) / $61.02 = 55.0% $5.25 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $115.59 89.4% upside ($115.59 - $61.02) / $61.02 = 89.4% $5.25 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $136.61 123.9% upside ($136.61 - $61.02) / $61.02 = 123.9% $5.25 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
5.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.25) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $5.25 FFO/share with a 22x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $115.59 per share. Dividend yield: 3.7%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $58.73
Analyst Range $54.00 – $61.20
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.73 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify