LXP Industrial Trust logo LXP - LXP Industrial Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $59.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $54.00
MEDIAN: $59.50
CONSENSUS: $59.50
UPSIDE: 8.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.8% below fair value
Current Price $55.05
Bear Case $83.11 51.0% upside ($83.11 - $55.05) / $55.05 = 51.0% $5.25 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $101.57 84.5% upside ($101.57 - $55.05) / $55.05 = 84.5% $5.25 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $120.04 118.1% upside ($120.04 - $55.05) / $55.05 = 118.1% $5.25 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
5.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.25) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $59.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.57 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $59.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify