Luxfer Holdings PLC logo LXFR - Luxfer Holdings PLC

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 48.6% above fair value
Current Price $16.05
Bear Case $8.64 46.2% downside ($8.64 - $16.05) / $16.05 = -46.2% $0.72 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $10.80 32.7% downside ($10.80 - $16.05) / $16.05 = -32.7% $0.72 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $12.96 19.3% downside ($12.96 - $16.05) / $16.05 = -19.3% $0.72 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.72$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.72, the base-case value is $10.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $7.50.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 157%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 186% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $7.50 (below our primary estimate by 31%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples