Lewis & Clark Bancorp logo LWCL - Lewis & Clark Bancorp

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.1% below fair value
Current Price $6.25
Bear Case $13.73 119.7% upside ($13.73 - $6.25) / $6.25 = 119.7% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $19.62 213.9% upside ($19.62 - $6.25) / $6.25 = 213.9% ROTCE 0.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $25.50 308.0% upside ($25.50 - $6.25) / $6.25 = 308.0% ROTCE 0.2% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

0.2%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (0.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.21x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 0.2% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $30.34 tangible book, implying $19.62 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (0.2%) is below the minimum investors require (6.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly