Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. logo LW - Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $51.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $51.00
CONSENSUS: $51.00
UPSIDE: 9.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.7% below fair value
Current Price $46.45
Bear Case $38.51 17.1% downside ($38.51 - $46.45) / $46.45 = -17.1% $2.67 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $46.76 0.7% upside ($46.76 - $46.45) / $46.45 = 0.7% $2.67 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $55.00 18.4% upside ($55.00 - $46.45) / $46.45 = 18.4% $2.67 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
2.67$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.76 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples