AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Lumen Technologies, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag LUMN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Lumen Technologies, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for LUMN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value LUMN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from LUMN's most recent reported fundamentals.

LUMN - Lumen Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $7.63 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 393.3% above fair value

Current Price $9.41

Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $9.41) / $9.41 = -100.0% EBITDA $1B × 6.0x − $17B debt

Fair Value $1.91 79.7% downside ($1.91 - $9.41) / $9.41 = -79.7% EBITDA $1B × 7.0x − $17B debt

Bull Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $9.41) / $9.41 = -100.0% EBITDA $1B × 8.0x − $17B debt

Adjust Assumptions

EV/EBITDA Multiple

7.0x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (7.0x) vs. 12.7× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 20.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses EV/EBITDA × Telecom Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.63 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.91 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 12.7x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.

⚠ Operating profit only covers interest payments 1.0 times over. If the company needs to refinance at higher rates, it could struggle to service its debt.

⚠ Only 28% of operating profit turns into actual cash for shareholders. Big investments and interest payments consume most of what the business earns.

ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $7.63 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable