LTC Properties, Inc. logo LTC - LTC Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 12
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.00
UPSIDE: 11.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.8% below fair value
Current Price $40.45
Bear Case $37.23 8.0% downside ($37.23 - $40.45) / $40.45 = -8.0% $3.04 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $47.47 17.4% upside ($47.47 - $40.45) / $40.45 = 17.4% $3.04 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $57.71 42.7% upside ($57.71 - $40.45) / $40.45 = 42.7% $3.04 FFO × 25x

Adjust Assumptions

20.3x
3.04$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.04) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.04 FFO/share with a 20x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $47.47 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $14.16.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $45.00
Analyst Range $45.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 5%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $14.16 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify