LTC - LTC Properties, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$45.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$45.00
LOW:
$45.00
MEDIAN:
$45.00
CONSENSUS:
$45.00
UPSIDE:
11.25%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
20.3x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.04) × healthcare P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Plain-Language Summary
At $3.04 FFO/share with a 20x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $47.47 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $14.16.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$45.00
Analyst Range
$45.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
5%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $14.16 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify