Lattice Semiconductor Corporation logo LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.11 DETAILS
HIGH: $175.00
LOW: $105.00
MEDIAN: $140.00
CONSENSUS: $141.11
DOWNSIDE: 1.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 228.3% above fair value
Current Price $143.22
Bear Case $33.12 76.9% downside ($33.12 - $143.22) / $143.22 = -76.9% $0.67 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $43.62 69.5% downside ($43.62 - $143.22) / $143.22 = -69.5% $0.67 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $54.13 62.2% downside ($54.13 - $143.22) / $143.22 = -62.2% $0.67 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
0.67$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.67)

Implied Market Multiple 213.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.11 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.62 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 49.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $141.11 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing