Lattice Semiconductor Corporation logo LSCC - Lattice Semiconductor Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $162.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $135.00
MEDIAN: $165.00
CONSENSUS: $162.14
UPSIDE: 41.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 967.2% above fair value
Current Price $114.40
Bear Case $8.04 93.0% downside ($8.04 - $114.40) / $114.40 = -93.0% $0.67 × 12x
Fair Value $10.72 90.6% downside ($10.72 - $114.40) / $114.40 = -90.6% $0.67 × 16x
Bull Case $13.40 88.3% downside ($13.40 - $114.40) / $114.40 = -88.3% $0.67 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
0.67$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.67)

Implied Market Multiple 170.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.67 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $10.72 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 39.7x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $162.14
Analyst Range $135.00 – $180.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 93%

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 39.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $162.14 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing