Liquidity Services, Inc. logo LQDT - Liquidity Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $44.00
CONSENSUS: $44.00
UPSIDE: 27.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 32.0% above fair value
Current Price $34.43
Bear Case $22.83 33.7% downside ($22.83 - $34.43) / $34.43 = -33.7% $0.90 × 21x P/E
Fair Value $26.09 24.2% downside ($26.09 - $34.43) / $34.43 = -24.2% $0.90 × 24x P/E
Bull Case $29.35 14.8% downside ($29.35 - $34.43) / $34.43 = -14.8% $0.90 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
0.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 38.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.09 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $44.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples