Liquidity Services, Inc. logo LQDT - Liquidity Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $50.00
UPSIDE: 17.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 103.5% above fair value
Current Price $42.49
Bear Case $18.27 57.0% downside ($18.27 - $42.49) / $42.49 = -57.0% $0.87 × 21x P/E
Fair Value $20.88 50.9% downside ($20.88 - $42.49) / $42.49 = -50.9% $0.87 × 24x P/E
Bull Case $23.49 44.7% downside ($23.49 - $42.49) / $42.49 = -44.7% $0.87 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
0.87$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 48.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.87, the base-case value is $20.88 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $50.00
Analyst Range $50.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 58%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples