AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag LPX as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for LPX is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value LPX?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from LPX's most recent reported fundamentals.

LPX - Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $95.86 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 18.6% below fair value

Current Price $73.44

Bear Case $72.18 1.7% downside ($72.18 - $73.44) / $73.44 = -1.7% $5.89 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $90.23 22.9% upside ($90.23 - $73.44) / $73.44 = 22.9% $5.89 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $108.27 47.4% upside ($108.27 - $73.44) / $73.44 = 47.4% $5.89 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

5.89$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.86 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.23 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 183%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $437.43 (above our primary estimate by 395%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples