Dorian LPG Ltd. logo LPG - Dorian LPG Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
DOWNSIDE: 5.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.0% below fair value
Current Price $58.15
Bear Case $56.76 2.4% downside ($56.76 - $58.15) / $58.15 = -2.4% $4.55 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $70.96 22.0% upside ($70.96 - $58.15) / $58.15 = 22.0% $4.55 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $85.15 46.4% upside ($85.15 - $58.15) / $58.15 = 46.4% $4.55 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.6x
4.55$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.55, the base-case value is $70.96 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (9 analysts) $55.00
Analyst Range $55.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 29%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples