Dorian LPG Ltd. logo LPG - Dorian LPG Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 39.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.6% below fair value
Current Price $39.56
Bear Case $54.21 37.0% upside ($54.21 - $39.56) / $39.56 = 37.0% $4.55 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $67.77 71.3% upside ($67.77 - $39.56) / $39.56 = 71.3% $4.55 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $81.32 105.6% upside ($81.32 - $39.56) / $39.56 = 105.6% $4.55 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.6x
4.55$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.77 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples