Lowe's Companies, Inc. logo LOW - Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 19
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $244.09 DETAILS
HIGH: $276.00
LOW: $190.00
MEDIAN: $254.00
CONSENSUS: $244.09
UPSIDE: 24.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.7% above fair value
Current Price $196.55
Bear Case $165.90 15.6% downside ($165.90 - $196.55) / $196.55 = -15.6% $11.85 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $189.60 3.5% downside ($189.60 - $196.55) / $196.55 = -3.5% $11.85 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $213.30 8.5% upside ($213.30 - $196.55) / $196.55 = 8.5% $11.85 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
11.85$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.85, the base-case value is $189.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $233.36.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (51 analysts) $244.09
Analyst Range $190.00 – $276.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 22%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $233.36 (above our primary estimate by 23%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples