Lowe's Companies, Inc. logo LOW - Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 19
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $279.18 DETAILS
HIGH: $325.00
LOW: $232.00
MEDIAN: $276.00
CONSENSUS: $279.18
UPSIDE: 31.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.6% below fair value
Current Price $211.95
Bear Case $200.63 5.3% downside ($200.63 - $211.95) / $211.95 = -5.3% $12.65 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $229.30 8.2% upside ($229.30 - $211.95) / $211.95 = 8.2% $12.65 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $257.96 21.7% upside ($257.96 - $211.95) / $211.95 = 21.7% $12.65 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
12.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $279.18 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $229.30 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $279.18 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples