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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.5% below fair value
Current Price $32.30
Bear Case $33.63 4.1% upside ($33.63 - $32.30) / $32.30 = 4.1% ROTCE 5.8% → 0.91x TBV
Fair Value $69.47 115.1% upside ($69.47 - $32.30) / $32.30 = 115.1% ROTCE 7.8% → 1.88x TBV
Bull Case $90.97 181.6% upside ($90.97 - $32.30) / $32.30 = 181.6% ROTCE 8.9% → 2.46x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.8%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.87x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 7.8% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.88x on $36.93 tangible book, implying $69.47 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.96.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $50.96 (27% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly