Loar Holdings Inc. logo LOAR - Loar Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $98.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $81.00
CONSENSUS: $83.75
UPSIDE: 18.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 170.5% above fair value
Current Price $70.89
Bear Case $13.29 81.3% downside ($13.29 - $70.89) / $70.89 = -81.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $26.21 63.0% downside ($26.21 - $70.89) / $70.89 = -63.0% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $41.14 42.0% downside ($41.14 - $70.89) / $70.89 = -42.0% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 82.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 27.9% vs our 16.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.21 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions