Loar Holdings Inc. logo LOAR - Loar Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $86.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $98.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $85.50
CONSENSUS: $86.00
UPSIDE: 37.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 84.4% above fair value
Current Price $62.34
Bear Case $20.89 66.5% downside ($20.89 - $62.34) / $62.34 = -66.5% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $33.81 45.8% downside ($33.81 - $62.34) / $62.34 = -45.8% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $48.74 21.8% downside ($48.74 - $62.34) / $62.34 = -21.8% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 65.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.81 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions