Loar Holdings Inc. logo LOAR - Loar Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $88.00
LOW: $72.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.00
UPSIDE: 29.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 76.9% above fair value
Current Price $61.57
Bear Case $18.53 69.9% downside ($18.53 - $61.57) / $61.57 = -69.9% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $34.81 43.5% downside ($34.81 - $61.57) / $61.57 = -43.5% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $53.62 12.9% downside ($53.62 - $61.57) / $61.57 = -12.9% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 57.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.1% vs our 16.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $34.81 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions