Alliant Energy Corporation logo LNT - Alliant Energy Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $77.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $75.50
CONSENSUS: $77.00
UPSIDE: 13.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 35.4% above fair value
Current Price $68.03
Bear Case $43.96 35.4% downside ($43.96 - $68.03) / $68.03 = -35.4% $3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $50.24 26.2% downside ($50.24 - $68.03) / $68.03 = -26.2% $3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $56.52 16.9% downside ($56.52 - $68.03) / $68.03 = -16.9% $3.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.14, the base-case value is $50.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $65.14.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $77.00
Analyst Range $74.00 – $83.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $65.14 (above our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $77.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples