Alliant Energy Corporation logo LNT - Alliant Energy Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $74.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $76.00
LOW: $68.00
MEDIAN: $75.00
CONSENSUS: $74.00
UPSIDE: 9.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.4% above fair value
Current Price $67.51
Bear Case $43.96 34.9% downside ($43.96 - $67.51) / $67.51 = -34.9% $3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $50.24 25.6% downside ($50.24 - $67.51) / $67.51 = -25.6% $3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $56.52 16.3% downside ($56.52 - $67.51) / $67.51 = -16.3% $3.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.14, the base-case value is $50.24 per share. DDM cross-check: $65.14.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $74.00
Analyst Range $68.00 – $76.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $65.14 (above our primary estimate by 30%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $74.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples