Alliant Energy Corporation logo LNT - Alliant Energy Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $76.00
CONSENSUS: $76.60
UPSIDE: 2.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.2% above fair value
Current Price $74.55
Bear Case $49.73 33.3% downside ($49.73 - $74.55) / $74.55 = -33.3% $3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $56.83 23.8% downside ($56.83 - $74.55) / $74.55 = -23.8% $3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $63.93 14.2% downside ($63.93 - $74.55) / $74.55 = -14.2% $3.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.60 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.83 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $65.05 (above our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.60 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples