Alliant Energy Corporation logo LNT - Alliant Energy Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $81.00
LOW: $74.00
MEDIAN: $76.00
CONSENSUS: $76.20
UPSIDE: 0.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.2% above fair value
Current Price $76.13
Bear Case $49.64 34.8% downside ($49.64 - $76.13) / $76.13 = -34.8% $3.14 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $56.73 25.5% downside ($56.73 - $76.13) / $76.13 = -25.5% $3.14 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $63.82 16.2% downside ($63.82 - $76.13) / $76.13 = -16.2% $3.14 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.14$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.20 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.73 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $65.05 (above our primary estimate by 29%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $76.20 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples