Limoneira Company logo LMNR - Limoneira Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $23.00
CONSENSUS: $21.67
UPSIDE: 69.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 84.5% above fair value
Current Price $12.79
Bear Case $4.27 66.6% downside ($4.27 - $12.79) / $12.79 = -66.6% $0.50 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $6.93 45.8% downside ($6.93 - $12.79) / $12.79 = -45.8% $0.50 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $9.60 24.9% downside ($9.60 - $12.79) / $12.79 = -24.9% $0.50 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
0.5$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.50)

Implied Market Multiple 25.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.67 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.93 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing