Limoneira Company logo LMNR - Limoneira Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.00
UPSIDE: 31.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 121.0% above fair value
Current Price $13.70
Bear Case $3.82 72.2% downside ($3.82 - $13.70) / $13.70 = -72.2% $0.50 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $6.20 54.7% downside ($6.20 - $13.70) / $13.70 = -54.7% $0.50 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $8.58 37.3% downside ($8.58 - $13.70) / $13.70 = -37.3% $0.50 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
0.5$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.50)

Implied Market Multiple 27.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.20 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $18.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing