Eli Lilly and Company logo LLY - Eli Lilly and Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 33
HOLD 9
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,263.74 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,400.00
LOW: $1,070.00
MEDIAN: $1,280.00
CONSENSUS: $1,263.74
UPSIDE: 18.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 24.4% above fair value
Current Price $1065.00
Bear Case $424.42 60.1% downside ($424.42 - $1,065.00) / $1,065.00 = -60.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $855.79 19.6% downside ($855.79 - $1,065.00) / $1,065.00 = -19.6% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,417.57 33.1% upside ($1,417.57 - $1,065.00) / $1,065.00 = 33.1% 28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 79.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1263.74 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $855.79 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $1263.74 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions