Lincoln Educational Services Corporation logo LINC - Lincoln Educational Services Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 125.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 83.3% above fair value
Current Price $24.38
Bear Case $10.95 55.1% downside ($10.95 - $24.38) / $24.38 = -55.1% $0.65 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $13.30 45.4% downside ($13.30 - $24.38) / $24.38 = -45.4% $0.65 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $15.65 35.8% downside ($15.65 - $24.38) / $24.38 = -35.8% $0.65 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.5x
0.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 37.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 20x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.65, the base-case value is $13.30 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $55.00
Analyst Range $50.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 76%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples