Lincoln Educational Services Corporation logo LINC - Lincoln Educational Services Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $53.80
UPSIDE: 33.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 72.2% above fair value
Current Price $40.34
Bear Case $19.29 52.2% downside ($19.29 - $40.34) / $40.34 = -52.2% $0.65 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $23.43 41.9% downside ($23.43 - $40.34) / $40.34 = -41.9% $0.65 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $27.56 31.7% downside ($27.56 - $40.34) / $40.34 = -31.7% $0.65 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.5x
0.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 62.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.80 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.43 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $53.80 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples