LINC - Lincoln Educational Services Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$47.60
DETAILS
HIGH:
$56.00
LOW:
$38.00
MEDIAN:
$50.00
CONSENSUS:
$47.60
DOWNSIDE:
1.65%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
20.5x
0.65$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
74.5x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples