Lincoln Educational Services Corporation logo LINC - Lincoln Educational Services Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $47.60
DOWNSIDE: 1.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 121.3% above fair value
Current Price $48.40
Bear Case $18.01 62.8% downside ($18.01 - $48.40) / $48.40 = -62.8% $0.65 × 17x P/E
Fair Value $21.88 54.8% downside ($21.88 - $48.40) / $48.40 = -54.8% $0.65 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $25.74 46.8% downside ($25.74 - $48.40) / $48.40 = -46.8% $0.65 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

20.5x
0.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 74.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.88 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $47.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples