Linde plc logo LIN - Linde plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $559.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $579.00
LOW: $525.00
MEDIAN: $570.00
CONSENSUS: $559.14
UPSIDE: 8.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.4% above fair value
Current Price $517.58
Bear Case $208.17 59.8% downside ($208.17 - $517.58) / $517.58 = -59.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $290.18 43.9% downside ($290.18 - $517.58) / $517.58 = -43.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $368.16 28.9% downside ($368.16 - $517.58) / $517.58 = -28.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 44.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $559.14 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $290.18 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $559.14 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions