Linde plc logo LIN - Linde plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $557.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $600.00
LOW: $525.00
MEDIAN: $565.00
CONSENSUS: $557.50
UPSIDE: 5.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 82.8% above fair value
Current Price $529.79
Bear Case $207.87 60.8% downside ($207.87 - $529.79) / $529.79 = -60.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $289.76 45.3% downside ($289.76 - $529.79) / $529.79 = -45.3% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $367.64 30.6% downside ($367.64 - $529.79) / $529.79 = -30.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 45.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 20.0% vs our 8.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $557.50 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $289.76 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $557.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions