Linde plc logo LIN - Linde plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $557.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $580.00
LOW: $525.00
MEDIAN: $558.00
CONSENSUS: $557.10
UPSIDE: 15.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 105.1% above fair value
Current Price $483.73
Bear Case $164.68 66.0% downside ($164.68 - $483.73) / $483.73 = -66.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $235.84 51.2% downside ($235.84 - $483.73) / $483.73 = -51.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $305.27 36.9% downside ($305.27 - $483.73) / $483.73 = -36.9% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 39.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.1% vs our 9.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $235.84 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $557.10
Analyst Range $525.00 – $580.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 58%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $557.10 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions