Littelfuse, Inc. logo LFUS - Littelfuse, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $478.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $535.00
LOW: $360.00
MEDIAN: $510.00
CONSENSUS: $478.75
UPSIDE: 15.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.9% above fair value
Current Price $413.05
Bear Case $215.78 47.8% downside ($215.78 - $413.05) / $413.05 = -47.8% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $299.55 27.5% downside ($299.55 - $413.05) / $413.05 = -27.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $382.78 7.3% downside ($382.78 - $413.05) / $413.05 = -7.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 31.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 17.0% vs our 10.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $478.75 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $299.55 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $478.75 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions