Littelfuse, Inc. logo LFUS - Littelfuse, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $435.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $520.00
LOW: $360.00
MEDIAN: $430.00
CONSENSUS: $435.00
DOWNSIDE: 5.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 51.7% above fair value
Current Price $460.48
Bear Case $218.98 52.4% downside ($218.98 - $460.48) / $460.48 = -52.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $303.59 34.1% downside ($303.59 - $460.48) / $460.48 = -34.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $387.65 15.8% downside ($387.65 - $460.48) / $460.48 = -15.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 32.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $435.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $303.59 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $435.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions