Is LEN-B undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Lennar Corporation as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag LEN-B as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Lennar Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for LEN-B comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value LEN-B?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. LEN-B was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from LEN-B's most recent reported fundamentals.

LEN-B - Lennar Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $87.67 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 69.5% below fair value

Current Price $78.27

Bear Case $199.78 155.2% upside ($199.78 - $78.27) / $78.27 = 155.2% $14.27 × 14x

Fair Value $256.86 228.2% upside ($256.86 - $78.27) / $78.27 = 228.2% $14.27 × 18x

Bull Case $313.94 301.1% upside ($313.94 - $78.27) / $78.27 = 301.1% $14.27 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

14.27$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($14.27)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 5.5x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $14.27 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $256.86 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.1x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $87.67

Analyst Range $84.00 – $94.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 193%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $87.67 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 193% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing