Leidos Holdings, Inc. logo LDOS - Leidos Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $172.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $215.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $180.00
CONSENSUS: $172.38
UPSIDE: 61.07%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.4% below fair value
Current Price $107.02
Bear Case $134.93 26.1% upside ($134.93 - $107.02) / $107.02 = 26.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $173.70 62.3% upside ($173.70 - $107.02) / $107.02 = 62.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $208.80 95.1% upside ($208.80 - $107.02) / $107.02 = 95.1% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 11.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 1.7% vs our 6.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $172.38 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $173.70 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions