Leidos Holdings, Inc. logo LDOS - Leidos Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $165.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $215.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $162.50
CONSENSUS: $165.88
UPSIDE: 53.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.1% below fair value
Current Price $108.21
Bear Case $133.67 23.5% upside ($133.67 - $108.21) / $108.21 = 23.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $172.07 59.0% upside ($172.07 - $108.21) / $108.21 = 59.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $206.85 91.2% upside ($206.85 - $108.21) / $108.21 = 91.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 11.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 1.8% vs our 6.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $165.88 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $172.07 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions