Gladstone Land Corporation logo LAND - Gladstone Land Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $13.33
UPSIDE: 37.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 58.8% below fair value
Current Price $9.67
Bear Case $19.15 98.0% upside ($19.15 - $9.67) / $9.67 = 98.0% $1.11 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $23.46 142.6% upside ($23.46 - $9.67) / $9.67 = 142.6% $1.11 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $27.76 187.1% upside ($27.76 - $9.67) / $9.67 = 187.1% $1.11 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.7x
1.11$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.11) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.11 FFO/share with a 29x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $23.46 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $3.48.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $13.33
Analyst Range $10.00 – $16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 76%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $3.48 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $13.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 76% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify