LAND - Gladstone Land Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$13.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$16.00
LOW:
$10.00
MEDIAN:
$14.00
CONSENSUS:
$13.33
UPSIDE:
48.61%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
28.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.11) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.11 FFO/share with a 29x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $23.46 per share. Dividend yield: 2.1%. DDM cross-check: $3.48.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$13.33
Analyst Range
$10.00 – $16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
76%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $3.48 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 76% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify