Gladstone Land Corporation logo LAND - Gladstone Land Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $13.33
UPSIDE: 38.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.1% below fair value
Current Price $9.63
Bear Case $17.50 81.7% upside ($17.50 - $9.63) / $9.63 = 81.7% $1.11 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $21.43 122.6% upside ($21.43 - $9.63) / $9.63 = 122.6% $1.11 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $25.36 163.4% upside ($25.36 - $9.63) / $9.63 = 163.4% $1.11 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.7x
1.11$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.11) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.43 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $3.48 (85% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 76% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify