Lamar Advertising Company logo LAMR - Lamar Advertising Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $160.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $170.00
LOW: $151.00
MEDIAN: $160.50
CONSENSUS: $160.50
UPSIDE: 6.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.3% below fair value
Current Price $150.86
Bear Case $257.46 70.7% upside ($257.46 - $150.86) / $150.86 = 70.7% $9.00 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $315.97 109.4% upside ($315.97 - $150.86) / $150.86 = 109.4% $9.00 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $374.49 148.2% upside ($374.49 - $150.86) / $150.86 = 148.2% $9.00 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
9.0$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.00) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $9.00 FFO/share with a 35x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $315.97 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $330.43.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $160.50
Analyst Range $151.00 – $170.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $160.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify