Lamar Advertising Company logo LAMR - Lamar Advertising Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 7
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $155.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $160.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $155.00
CONSENSUS: $155.00
UPSIDE: 1.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.6% below fair value
Current Price $153.10
Bear Case $251.32 64.2% upside ($251.32 - $153.10) / $153.10 = 64.2% $9.00 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $303.54 98.3% upside ($303.54 - $153.10) / $153.10 = 98.3% $9.00 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $355.76 132.4% upside ($355.76 - $153.10) / $153.10 = 132.4% $9.00 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
9.0$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($9.00) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $155.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $303.54 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $155.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 128% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify